Evidence suggests new housing targets numbers set by Labour government for Kent, will not be met.

Updated 09:55 – 15 Dec 2024

Is it a pipe dream?

Can this Labour Government either build or start 1.5 million homes before the end of the next parliament in 2029?

The evidence published by Department for Levelling Up Housing & Communities, strongly suggests building or even starting 1.5 million homes across the UK, is a pipe dream.

How will the Labour Government measure the number of homes. Will they use the number of houses granted planning permission. If so, then the publicly available data shows 1.5m dwellings were granted planning permission across all districts in the UK, between 2020/21 and 2023/24. However, if they are to use the number of houses started, or the number of houses completed, both sets of data make it clear it will take a good number of years to start and complete 1.5m homes and that won’t happen in the life of this parliament.

Also the Chief Executive of Barrett Redrow the largest housebuilder in the country, believes it is not feasible to build 1.5m homes in this parliament

The new NPPF released by the Labour government this month doesn’t make clear whether it is approvals (planning permissions granted), starts or completions either. Clarity on this point would help as it means the Government won’t be able to shift the goal posts down the line.

If one looks at the number of dwellings started in Kent in the last ten years, the average across all 12 districts is 4,877, meaning it would take twelve years to start and complete the near 62,000 homes Kent needs to build in the next four and half years due to new targets set by the Government.

If one takes the published evidence for the number of permanent dwellings completed across the twelve Kent local authorities for the last ten years, it’s clear the new target of 13,646 dwellings per year, set by the Labour Govt, will not be reached.

Given the old target set by the Tories was, 12,133 dwellings per year across all 12 Kent Local Authorities, was never reached in any of the last ten years, the evidence available makes it clear that only two council’s, Maidstone & Dartford, might hit their new targets.

Under changes made to the NPPF by the Labour government this month, councils will be encouraged to undertake “green belt reviews” when they are unable to meet their housing targets without building on the green belt.

The new housing targets set by the Labour Govt are mandatory. Councils who fail to hit their targets could face more intervention from ministers as in the case of Quinn Homes – Highsted Park application, or a stronger “presumption in favour of sustainable development”.

The presumption means that under planning rules, councils can no longer block a development merely because it is not in the authority’s Local Plan. So for example Elm Tree Park in Sellindge proposed by Quinn Homes is not in the local plan

It also gives developers a much better chance of winning on appeal if councils refuse permission first. So Cllrs and campaigners will need to up there game if they wish to apply any pressure to prevent more homes from being built.

However, that said, given the evidence available, we suspect the 12 Kent Local Authorities will grant sufficient planning permissions to meet the housing targets set across the County. However, developers, be they private, housing associations or local authorities will not start or complete the 61,407 homes required in Kent in the next four years and half years and there’s more than enough evidence to support that conclusion

The Shepway Vox Team

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