Within 21 days the known cases of Coronavirus in Kent (64) & Medway (15) has gone from one to seventy nine, as the interactive graph below shows. There are no doubt others who may have the virus, but have not been tested. Hence why it is essential to STAY AT HOME.
The maths of coronavirus are very simple.
Those who are modelling the virus currently believe that each person infected with coronavirus infects 2.5 people over the course of around five days.
That means 30 days after that first infection, 406 people will have the virus.
If though the exposure is halved to 1.25 people, that first infection would only led to 15 infections in 30 days – less than 5% of 406.
Coming back to the 79 people currently known to be infected with coronavirus in Kent & Medway, if we didn’t do anything about them, they would go on to infect 19,287 people, within 30 days.
That’s approximately half the people who live within the boundary of Whitstable, as outlined
And if we did nothing about them they would infect 13,022,044 within sixty days and by seventy five days the whole of the UK population would be infected.
The NHS in Kent, and the country would not be able to cope. Hence the measures the Prime Minister has taken to lock down the country. Draconian maybe, but absolutely necessary.
If you want to understand how and why contagions spread then there is an excellent book you can buy and read while in self isolation called – The Rules of Contagion. It’s written by Adam Kucharski who is an Associate Professor and Sir Henry Dale Fellow at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, where he works on mathematical analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. So he knows a thing or two about how this virus works and is likely to spread.
If that doesn’t float your boat you can always volunteer to help others. If this does float your boat then you can visit the Council’s website and fill in the online form.
Oh and don’t forget to wash your hands.
The Shepwayvox Team
Journalism for the People NOT the Powerful
Note the Maths were incorrect initial and have been adjusted to reflect the true extent of infection.