How 79 People Infected With Coronavirus Could Infect The Whole Country If We Do Nothing

Blood sample with respiratory coronavirus positive

Within 21 days the known cases of Coronavirus in Kent (64) & Medway (15) has gone from one to seventy nine, as the interactive graph below shows. There are no doubt others who may have the virus, but have not been tested. Hence why it is essential to STAY AT HOME.

The maths of coronavirus are very simple.

Those who are modelling the virus currently believe that each person infected with coronavirus infects 2.5 people over the course of around five days.

That means 30 days after that first infection, 406 people will have the virus.

If though the exposure is halved to 1.25 people, that first infection would only led to 15 infections in 30 days – less than 5% of 406.

covid 19

Coming back to the 79 people currently known to be infected with coronavirus in Kent & Medway, if  we didn’t do anything about them, they would go on to infect 19,287 people, within 30 days.

That’s approximately half the people who live within the boundary of Whitstable, as outlined

Screenshot from 2020-03-23 21-15-02

And if we did nothing about them they would infect 13,022,044 within sixty days and by seventy five days the whole of the UK population would be infected.

The NHS in Kent, and the country would not be able to cope. Hence the measures the Prime Minister has taken to lock down the country. Draconian maybe, but absolutely necessary.

If you want to understand how and why contagions spread then there is an excellent book you can buy and read while in self isolation called – The Rules of Contagion. It’s written by Adam Kucharski who is an Associate Professor and Sir Henry Dale Fellow at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, where he works on mathematical analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. So he knows a thing or two about how this virus works and is likely to spread.

If that doesn’t float your boat you can always volunteer to help others. If this does float your boat then you can visit the Council’s website and fill in the online form.

Oh and don’t forget to wash your hands.

The Shepwayvox Team

Journalism for the People NOT the Powerful

Note the Maths were incorrect initial and have been adjusted to reflect the true extent of infection.


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3 Comments on How 79 People Infected With Coronavirus Could Infect The Whole Country If We Do Nothing

  1. I didn’t need to know how serious this would get as know only too well from family and friends abroad. As I am in the danger category, I hope I will have a few more years to live as am in total shut down and have been for a week. I just hope this town now wakes up and starts acting responsibly. Boris should have done this last week but at least he has finally brought home the seriousness of the situation for the NHS. It will be interesting to see how the country deals with the next stage of this crisis. It just shows you how fragile world civilisation is in the 21st Century.

  2. Sadly the bean counter administrators in our local NHS trust are more concerned with saving money than for the welfare of their staff. Staff are not being issued with appropriate PPE, or are being told to ration it when carrying out their work.

  3. The stay in doors is paramount I have (according to NHS 111) the virus glad to say mild, no one has tested me, counted me or anything. My daughter knows of a friend who has it in Ashford again not counted, tested etc. If I was less caring or a knobhead I could continue to go out and spread. The NHS and I got through quickly suggest the virus last 14 days, I am on day 12-13 at the moment. Some symptoms will continue. If you consider the range of symptoms is negligible to death it can vary greatly and symptoms come and go. Fourteen days ago I had a sore throat and cough, felt rough as well, the sore throat persisted for about at least 10 days went and came back, the cough stopped after three days and then returned about seven days later. Had temperature for short periods and fleeting headaches, loss of smell is another feature. For all this period I have felt unwell, the question they ask is would it stop you doing anything? I would not have gone to work yesterday but could today. Stay safe everyone. Look out for all those blighters posting how the “new” Churchill is doing a fabulous job.

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