Now the government guidance has unleashed the herd, you can be assured that for the next two weeks we are going to have good news on Covid 19 deaths. And better news on excess deaths, come to that. In two weeks time the Prime Minster and his cabinet will be announcing a massive reduction in these we strongly suspect.
You can imagine the Prime Minster’s Churchillian lines:
We fought Covid on the beaches
We fought it on the landing grounds
We fought it in the fields
And we fought it in the streets
And we won!
Or something akin to that.
But that is simply not true. The fall in cases is a pattern that necessarily follows lock down: the virus could not successfully infect enough people and so cases have fallen. It is also a pattern of all pandemics, broadly speaking; they come and go in waves.
How big any second wave might be cannot be determined yet. We personally believe covid-19 may look as though it’s heading for the exit, but it’ll back; which all things considered could trigger another lockdown. If this happens, as we suspect it may, businesses who’ve opened up across the county; and our district, would be a further blow for businesses in Kent.
Note this picture this morning (13/05/20) from the Mirror:
They seem clueless about social distancing there. No common sense! The train would have been packed.
And so the second wave begins. But the real second wave will not begin until very late August, early September which coincides with the rise of the flu season
The rate of those testing positive for Covid-19 will appear to fall after lockdown is lifted. But that will be deceptive, as pubs and other locations begin to open there will be a slow and steady rise of those testing positive we predict, until by the beginning of Sept that rise will become visible to all.
We suspect the rise will be in those between 18 and 64 in the main as those are the people who get out and about more often. If this scenario does unfold, as we predict, there will be no one but the government to blame.
Given that track and trace is a shambles; and it would appear it’ll get no better in the future, increased positive tests and potentially deaths will occur we honestly believe, as the consequences of the change in policy take time to emerge.
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